Independiente Medellinvs
Santa Fe
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente Medellin · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente Medellin 0-1 Santa Fe
Original prediction
Independiente Medellin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 46.8% | 36.9% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 24.9% | 33.2% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Independiente Medellin
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Independiente Medellin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20