Independiente Medellinvs
Once Caldas
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/18/2026, 1:10:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente Medellin · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente Medellin 0-2 Once Caldas
Original prediction
Independiente Medellin
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 47.3% | 42.6% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.7% | 26.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 25.0% | 31.3% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Independiente Medellin
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Independiente Medellin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00