Independiente Medellinvs
Millonarios
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/30/2026, 1:05:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente Medellin 2-2 Millonarios
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.1% | 35.9% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 28.2% | 30.0% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.7% | 34.1% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.28 · Draw 2.28 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.0%
Model confidence
35.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Independiente MedellinLWDLW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MillonariosDWWDD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Independiente MedellinMillonarios
49.4Attack50.5
57.5Defence65.6
51.7Form49.5
54.9Power55.9
1.09xG1.18