Independiente Medellinvs
Jaguares
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/22/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente Medellin · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Independiente Medellin 2-1 Jaguares
Original prediction
Independiente Medellin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 72.8% | 68.4% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.28 | 17.6% | 18.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 9.68 | 9.6% | 12.7% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Independiente Medellin
Probability
68.4%
Model confidence
68.4%
Independiente Medellin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60