Gainare Tottorivs
Cerezo Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 10/14/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cerezo Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gainare Tottori 2-3 Cerezo Osaka
Original prediction
Cerezo Osaka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.01 | 13.0% | 33.4% | 20.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.58 | 19.9% | 26.7% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 1.36 | 67.0% | 39.9% | -27.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Cerezo Osaka
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Cerezo Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60