Fortaleza FCvs
Deportes Tolima
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/27/2026, 11:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportes Tolima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fortaleza FC 0-1 Deportes Tolima, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fortaleza FC 2-2 Deportes Tolima
Original prediction
Deportes Tolima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.27 | 28.2% | 28.8% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.8% | 30.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.9% | 40.5% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Projected Score
Fortaleza FC 0–1 Deportes Tolima
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Deportes Tolima
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Deportes Tolima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00