Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Everton 1-0 Wolves
Original prediction
Everton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 57.7% | 42.4% | -15.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 24.1% | 26.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 5.11 | 18.2% | 30.8% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EvertonDDWWD
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
WolvesDLWWW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EvertonWolves
100.0Attack83.3
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
97.0Power94.8
1.54xG1.45