Deportivo Pastovs
Once Caldas
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/20/2026, 1:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Once Caldas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Deportivo Pasto 1-0 Once Caldas
Original prediction
Once Caldas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 30.2% | 29.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 29.1% | 26.2% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.6% | 44.5% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Once Caldas
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Once Caldas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00