Consadole Sapporovs
Fagiano Okayama
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fagiano Okayama · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Consadole Sapporo 1-2 Fagiano Okayama
Original prediction
Fagiano Okayama
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.25 | 17.3% | 33.2% | 16.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 21.8% | 27.2% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 60.9% | 39.5% | -21.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–07%
Predicted outcome
Fagiano Okayama
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Fagiano Okayama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60