Chertsey Townvs
Malvern Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chertsey Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chertsey Town 5-0 Malvern Town
Original prediction
Chertsey Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 63.9% | 53.2% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.4% | 24.2% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 5.78 | 15.6% | 22.6% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
Chertsey Town
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Chertsey Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80