Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Chelsea are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Luton are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Chelsea hold an 11.2-point power-rating edge (64.2 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.1% in the League Cup, while Chelsea holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chelsea
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
12.1%
Chelsea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60