Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelsea 2-0 Luton
Original prediction
Chelsea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 83.2% | 58.0% | -25.1 pts |
| Draw | 8.34 | 11.3% | 22.4% | 11.1 pts |
| Away | 17.20 | 5.5% | 19.6% | 14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
Chelsea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChelseaWWDWL
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LutonDWWLW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ChelseaLuton
57.1Attack50.0
76.2Defence50.0
61.9Form50.0
64.2Power53.0
1.81xG0.90