Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chelsea 6-3 Leeds
Original prediction
Chelsea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 56.6% | 43.4% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23.5% | 26.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.72 | 19.9% | 29.9% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Chelsea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChelseaLWWWW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LeedsDDWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ChelseaLeeds
66.7Attack66.7
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power88.7
1.56xG1.33