Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Europa Fc · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 21:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.37 | 21.2% | 34.4% | 13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.7% | 27.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 52.1% | 38.0% | -14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Europa Fc
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Europa Fc has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CalamochaDDLLL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Europa FcLLWLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CalamochaEuropa Fc
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.63xG1.39