Castellonensevs
Almeria
COMPLETEDSpain · Copa del Rey · 10/27/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Castellonense 1-2 Almeria
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 21:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.71 | 13.8% | 32.5% | 18.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.8% | 26.3% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 64.5% | 41.1% | -23.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CastellonenseWLWLW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AlmeriaDWWWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CastellonenseAlmeria
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.63xG1.39