Bucaramangavs
Junior
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/4/2026, 11:10:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bucaramanga · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bucaramanga 3-1 Junior
Original prediction
Bucaramanga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 46.0% | 41.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.8% | 29.7% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 26.2% | 29.2% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Bucaramanga
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Bucaramanga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60