Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bradford 0-0 Burnley
Original prediction
Burnley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.28 | 28.7% | 30.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 28.2% | 27.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 43.2% | 42.0% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BradfordWWWDW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BurnleyLDDLD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BradfordBurnley
22.2Attack55.6
55.6Defence66.7
22.2Form66.7
36.4Power61.5
1.10xG1.44