Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bradford are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Burnley are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Burnley hold a 25.0-point power-rating edge (36.4 v 61.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.8% in the League Cup, while Burnley holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
13.8%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00