Bournemouthvs
Lincoln
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bournemouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bournemouth 4-0 Lincoln
Original prediction
Bournemouth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 73.5% | 45.1% | -28.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.67 | 16.6% | 24.3% | 7.7 pts |
| Away | 9.48 | 9.9% | 30.7% | 20.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bournemouth
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Bournemouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00