Atletico Nacionalvs
Junior
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Nacional 3-1 Junior
Original prediction
Atletico Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 65.0% | 50.3% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 21.3% | 26.7% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 6.81 | 13.7% | 23.1% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Nacional
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Atletico Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20