Atletico Nacionalvs
Águilas Doradas
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/13/2026, 9:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico Nacional 2-0 Águilas Doradas, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Nacional 2-0 Águilas Doradas
Original prediction
Atletico Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 67.9% | 72.0% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.39 | 21.1% | 18.5% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 8.44 | 11.0% | 9.5% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Projected Score
Atletico Nacional 2–0 Águilas Doradas
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Nacional
Probability
72.0%
Model confidence
72.0%
Atletico Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40