Atletico Nacionalvs
Deportes Tolima
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 10/8/2026, 11:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico Nacional 1-0 Deportes Tolima, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Nacional 0-0 Deportes Tolima
Original prediction
Atletico Nacional
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 12:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 56.7% | 48.2% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.9% | 28.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 5.05 | 18.4% | 23.6% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.5 pts
Projected Score
Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportes Tolima
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Nacional
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Atletico Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00