Aserri FCvs
Santa Cruz FC
COMPLETEDCosta-Rica · Liga de Ascenso · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aserri FC · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aserri FC 2-1 Santa Cruz FC
Original prediction
Aserri FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 54.7% | 65.6% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 24.6% | 19.8% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 20.7% | 14.6% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Aserri FC
Probability
65.6%
Model confidence
65.6%
Aserri FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80