Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Ana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aserri FC 1-0 Santa Ana
Original prediction
Santa Ana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.2% | 34.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 28.6% | 28.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 35.1% | 36.5% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Santa Ana
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Santa Ana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Aserri FCWWDLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Santa AnaWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Aserri FCSanta Ana
0.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence66.7
0.0Form66.7
26.7Power58.8
1.15xG1.24