Aserri FCvs
Guadalupe FC
COMPLETEDCosta-Rica · Liga de Ascenso · 10/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aserri FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aserri FC 2-3 Guadalupe FC
Original prediction
Aserri FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.2% | 45.8% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.2% | 27.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 34.5% | 26.5% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Aserri FC
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Aserri FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20