Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aserri FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aserri FC 1-6 AD Sarchí
Original prediction
Aserri FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.1% | 43.7% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 28.7% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.68 | 24.3% | 27.6% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Aserri FC
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Aserri FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Aserri FCDWDDL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AD SarchíWLLWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Aserri FCAD Sarchí
42.4Attack36.7
59.1Defence56.7
50.0Form46.7
53.2Power48.8
1.20xG0.82