Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Sarchí · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Aserri FC are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while AD Sarchí are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and AD Sarchí hold a 53.7-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.6% in the Liga de Ascenso, while AD Sarchí holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AD Sarchí
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
AD Sarchí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60