Aserri FCvs
AD Carmelita
COMPLETEDCosta-Rica · Liga de Ascenso · 10/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Carmelita · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aserri FC 1-1 AD Carmelita
Original prediction
AD Carmelita
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 39.8% | 33.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 28.9% | 26.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 31.3% | 39.8% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
AD Carmelita
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
AD Carmelita has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60