Alianza Valleduparvs
Santa Fe
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 9/19/2026, 9:05:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alianza Valledupar 0-1 Santa Fe, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Valledupar 1-4 Santa Fe
Original prediction
Santa Fe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 33.0% | 18.0% | -15.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 30.2% | 25.4% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.8% | 56.6% | 19.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.9 pts
Projected Score
Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Santa Fe
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Santa Fe
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Alianza ValleduparWWLLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Santa FeLWDDW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Alianza ValleduparSanta Fe
25.0Attack50.5
48.8Defence64.5
29.8Form51.6
37.3Power56.7
0.54xG1.50