Alianza Valleduparvs
Atletico Nacional
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera A · 8/30/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Nacional · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Alianza Valledupar 0-1 Atletico Nacional, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Alianza Valledupar 1-5 Atletico Nacional
Original prediction
Atletico Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.98 | 23.3% | 10.8% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.6% | 20.9% | -7.7 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 48.1% | 68.3% | 20.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.2 pts
Projected Score
Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Atletico Nacional
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Nacional
Probability
68.3%
Model confidence
68.3%
Atletico Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60