AFC Wimbledonvs
Mansfield Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mansfield Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Wimbledon 0-3 Mansfield Town
Original prediction
Mansfield Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.32 | 28.1% | 26.5% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.3% | 26.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 44.6% | 47.0% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Mansfield Town
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Mansfield Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20