Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
12%
MediumconfidenceAD Sarchí are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Aserri FC are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and AD Sarchí hold a 53.7-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the Liga de Ascenso, favouring a draw with 12.3% confidence, a 54% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
25.9%
Model confidence
12.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AD SarchíDWDLL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Aserri FCLLDLD
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AD SarchíAserri FC
66.7Attack0.0
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power26.7
1.77xG1.03