Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Sarchí · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Sarchí 2-1 Aserri FC
Original prediction
AD Sarchí
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 50.0% | 44.5% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.2% | 27.1% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.44 | 25.8% | 28.3% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
AD Sarchí
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
AD Sarchí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AD SarchíLDDWD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Aserri FCWWDWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AD SarchíAserri FC
33.3Attack0.0
66.7Defence66.7
50.0Form0.0
53.0Power26.7
1.48xG1.02