AD Carmelitavs
Santa Ana
COMPLETEDCosta-Rica · Liga de Ascenso · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Carmelita · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Carmelita 1-0 Santa Ana
Original prediction
AD Carmelita
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 37.5% | 38.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 27.6% | 27.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 34.8% | 34.7% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
AD Carmelita
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
AD Carmelita has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20