AD Carmelitavs
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
COMPLETEDCosta-Rica · Liga de Ascenso · 9/7/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Carmelita · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Carmelita 1-2 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Original prediction
AD Carmelita
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 38.9% | 36.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.1% | 28.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 33.0% | 34.8% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
AD Carmelita
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
AD Carmelita has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80