AD Carmelitavs
Guadalupe FC
COMPLETEDCosta-Rica · Liga de Ascenso · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Carmelita · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Carmelita 0-2 Guadalupe FC
Original prediction
AD Carmelita
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.0% | 57.0% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.4% | 22.9% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.63 | 24.6% | 20.2% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
AD Carmelita
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
AD Carmelita has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00