Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ACV · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ACV 2-1 Hoogeveen
Original prediction
ACV
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 75.0% | 41.5% | -33.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.88 | 15.4% | 23.2% | 7.8 pts |
| Away | 9.50 | 9.6% | 35.2% | 25.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-33.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
ACV
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
ACV has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ACVWWWLL
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HoogeveenDLWWW
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ACVHoogeveen
33.3Attack55.6
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form66.7
15.3Power63.1
1.49xG2.10