Yorkvs
Swindon Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
York 4-0 Swindon Town
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 58.5% | 41.6% | -16.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 22.2% | 27.5% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 4.83 | 19.2% | 30.9% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
YorkDLWDW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Swindon TownWWLWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
YorkSwindon Town
60.0Attack53.3
46.7Defence60.0
53.3Form66.7
56.5Power61.3
1.48xG1.42