Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: York 1-0 Port Vale, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
York 2-0 Port Vale
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 46.9% | 43.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.9% | 29.8% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 26.2% | 26.3% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Projected Score
York 1–0 Port Vale
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
YorkDDDWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Port ValeDWWWD
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
YorkPort Vale
57.6Attack20.0
60.6Defence66.7
51.5Form40.0
56.9Power45.3
1.27xG0.54