Yorkvs
Northampton
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: York 1-0 Northampton, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
York 1-1 Northampton
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 63.7% | 48.1% | -15.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.27 | 21.7% | 27.9% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 6.39 | 14.5% | 24.0% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.7 pts
Projected Score
York 1–0 Northampton
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
YorkWDLLW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NorthamptonLLLWD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
YorkNorthampton
66.7Attack14.3
58.3Defence71.4
58.3Form28.6
60.9Power41.1
1.47xG0.71