Yorkvs
Gillingham
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
York 3-0 Gillingham
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 57.6% | 40.0% | -17.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.5% | 28.1% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 4.67 | 19.8% | 31.9% | 12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
YorkLWDLD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GillinghamWWWWD
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
YorkGillingham
61.9Attack52.4
52.4Defence71.4
52.4Form57.1
56.0Power59.9
1.25xG1.33