Yorkvs
Exeter City
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
York 2-1 Exeter City
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 56.0% | 44.6% | -11.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.3% | 27.1% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 4.69 | 19.8% | 28.4% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
YorkDWLLD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Exeter CityWLLDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
YorkExeter City
66.7Attack33.3
50.0Defence83.3
66.7Form50.0
64.8Power56.2
1.44xG1.11