Yorkvs
Accrington ST
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
York 1-1 Accrington ST
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 54.3% | 55.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.2% | 22.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.32 | 21.5% | 21.8% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
55.9%
Model confidence
55.9%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
YorkDDWDL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Accrington STWDDWD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
YorkAccrington ST
60.0Attack48.5
60.0Defence54.5
53.3Form42.4
58.0Power50.4
1.79xG1.04