Yarud Mariupol'vs
Nyva Ternopil
COMPLETEDUkraine · Persha Liga · 10/5/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yarud Mariupol' · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Yarud Mariupol' 0-0 Nyva Ternopil
Original prediction
Yarud Mariupol'
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 11:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.9% | 44.3% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.5% | 28.2% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 22.5% | 27.4% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Yarud Mariupol'
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Yarud Mariupol' has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00