Yarud Mariupol'vs
Inhulets
COMPLETEDUkraine · Persha Liga · 10/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yarud Mariupol' · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Yarud Mariupol' 1-0 Inhulets, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Yarud Mariupol' 4-1 Inhulets
Original prediction
Yarud Mariupol'
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 49.2% | 51.8% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.6% | 27.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.95 | 23.2% | 20.6% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Projected Score
Yarud Mariupol' 1–0 Inhulets
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Yarud Mariupol'
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Yarud Mariupol' has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60