Wrexhamvs
Southampton
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wrexham 2-1 Southampton
Original prediction
Southampton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 33.6% | 21.8% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.9% | 22.5% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 39.5% | 55.7% | 16.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Southampton
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00