Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wrexham 4-1 Preston
Original prediction
Wrexham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.8% | 60.6% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 24.6% | 23.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.75 | 19.7% | 16.4% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
60.6%
Model confidence
60.6%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WrexhamLDWLD
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PrestonLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
WrexhamPreston
36.7Attack26.7
50.0Defence33.3
36.7Form13.3
42.0Power27.8
1.65xG0.70