Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wrexham 1-1 Burnley
Original prediction
Wrexham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 46.6% | 53.6% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.8% | 24.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 26.5% | 21.7% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WrexhamDWLDD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BurnleyLDLDL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WrexhamBurnley
40.0Attack40.0
73.3Defence20.0
40.0Form13.3
51.6Power28.0
1.87xG0.82