Wrexhamvs
Birmingham
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 8/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wrexham 1-2 Birmingham
Original prediction
Wrexham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 41.7% | 39.3% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 29.2% | 28.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 29.0% | 31.8% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WrexhamDDLWD
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
BirminghamLDDWD
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WrexhamBirmingham
33.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence66.7
33.3Form33.3
48.3Power48.3
1.27xG1.08