Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wolves · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wolves 1-0 Watford
Original prediction
Wolves
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 69.1% | 59.7% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.95 | 18.9% | 22.3% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 7.80 | 12.0% | 17.9% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Wolves
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
Wolves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WolvesDWLLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
WatfordWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
WolvesWatford
57.6Attack30.3
51.5Defence42.4
54.5Form33.3
56.1Power37.8
2.25xG0.76