Wolvesvs
Stoke City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 8/29/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wolves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wolves 4-1 Stoke City
Original prediction
Wolves
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 61.4% | 53.7% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 22.4% | 24.3% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 5.78 | 16.2% | 22.0% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Wolves
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Wolves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WolvesWWDWW
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Stoke CityDLLWD
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
WolvesStoke City
83.3Attack33.3
50.0Defence16.7
66.7Form0.0
68.0Power21.5
2.08xG1.02