Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wolves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wolves 1-3 Bolton
Original prediction
Wolves
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 67.6% | 55.0% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.79 | 19.6% | 23.8% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 7.33 | 12.8% | 21.3% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Wolves
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Wolves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WolvesLWLWD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BoltonLWWLL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
WolvesBolton
62.5Attack44.4
54.2Defence37.0
58.3Form37.0
59.5Power42.2
2.46xG1.07