Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wolves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
West Ham 4-2 Wolves
Original prediction
Wolves
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 45.8% | 33.8% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 26.2% | 26.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 28.0% | 40.2% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Wolves
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Wolves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
West HamDWLDW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
WolvesWWWDW
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
West HamWolves
44.4Attack100.0
44.4Defence55.6
22.2Form77.8
40.2Power77.5
1.25xG1.74