Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Ham · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
West Ham 1-1 QPR
Original prediction
West Ham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 64.9% | 47.5% | -17.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.74 | 19.8% | 26.5% | 6.6 pts |
| Away | 6.16 | 15.3% | 26.1% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
West Ham
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
West Ham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
West HamDLWWW
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
QPRDDDLW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
West HamQPR
91.7Attack41.7
54.2Defence70.8
62.5Form54.2
67.2Power58.1
1.55xG1.05